Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 12.266150 14.317103 16.555972 19.174951 22.147726 25.410264 29.254638
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 8.543810 11.198045 14.387608 18.473129 23.534476 29.563789 37.250962
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.246242 9.075393 12.773408 17.891905 24.712370 33.398128 45.190592
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.942998 7.862353 11.966624 18.033314 26.621789 38.170661 54.660551
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.904903 6.757022 11.044264 17.768251 27.811560 41.972578 63.087041
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 3.398826 6.324753 10.981255 18.656613 30.640205 48.202796 75.318731
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.894436 5.778472 10.625898 18.999395 32.622968 53.311134 86.283313
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.442867 5.222978 10.148439 19.044694 34.089978 57.703770 96.455029
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.078614 4.747628 9.719803 19.085266 35.504481 62.069616 106.842898
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.957561 4.718584 10.075148 20.508451 39.327572 70.509104 124.165153
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.788110 4.554524 10.147200 21.413352 42.318454 77.780563 140.058825
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.630391 4.382873 10.173981 22.222808 45.190477 85.025994 156.335412
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.389030 3.980983 9.696507 22.043556 46.321894 89.513823 168.530919
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.130469 3.478002 8.927681 21.189059 46.113891 91.667840 176.938747
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.929475 3.068161 8.289946 20.510886 46.158268 94.250103 186.241912
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.812322 2.852751 8.058244 20.661277 47.838928 99.917094 201.363472
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.688093 2.583042 7.648776 20.359471 48.557728 103.819402 213.504954
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.644117 2.543672 7.803645 21.357970 52.065180 113.245783 236.356330
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.577623 2.414667 7.704729 21.743029 54.285689 120.299681 255.126153
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.506398 2.249298 7.480022 21.793775 55.775135 125.997693 271.625408
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.444459 2.097508 7.265476 21.839325 57.248741 131.744938 288.519385
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.438183 2.150370 7.645020 23.438932 62.377613 145.225734 321.185111
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.413645 2.126342 7.794463 24.455146 66.235377 156.296193 349.615341